Predictions - Supporting Actress

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLEAmy Adams, The Fighter --- She's an A-list actress looking to garner her third Oscar nomination in three years and her film is going to be nominated for Best Picture. The role is the classic "supportive girlfriend/wife" that does so well in Supporting Actress. Also, she's playing against type. The question is not so much if she'll be nominated, but can she win? Her main competition is her co-star, Melissa Leo, who definitely has the showier role (not to mention the Golden Globe and the Critics' Choice Award).

Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech --- Another supporting lady in a probable Best Picture nominee. She's also another "supportive girlfriend/wife," and a royal one to boot. Oscar loves royalty. She's an industry veteran and was nominated by the SAG, the HFPA, the BFCA, and the BAFTAs. I don't think she'll win, but she's in.


Mila Kunis, Black Swan --- One of the surprises of the season was when this actress gained more traction than her older, previously Oscar-nom'd co-star, Barbara Hershey. From That 70's Show to the Academy Awards; she looks like she'll go all the way. She is more vulnerable than the other contenders, though. We'll see if her name is called tomorrow morning.


Melissa Leo, The Fighter --- Going into the BFCA/Globes weekend (1/14-1/16), it looked like there was no frontrunner in this race. By Sunday night, Leo had two major awards and officially led the race. Her nomination is a certainty and, at this moment, I do think she'll win; however, there is strong competition from the other ladies and she didn't score a BAFTA nod. Will internal competition and a potential lack of support from British voters keep her from winning one of Hollywood's highest honors?

Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit --- Without a doubt, this is the most confusing contender in any category. She's obviously the lead in the movie, but is being campaigned supporting due to her age. Most awards bodies have placed her in supporting, but the BAFTAs called her leading. Where will she go? She definitely has fans, but vote splitting could ruin her chances at a nomination.



Next in line: Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom), Lesley Manville (Another Year), and Barbara Hershey (Black Swan) all have good chances of being spoilers. Weaver just needs enough people to see her film; Manville needs that as well as enough people putting her in supporting; and Hershey needs people to pick her over her younger costar. Steinfeld's category confusion could be beneficial to any of these ladies, too.

Other Possibilities: Marion Cotillard (Inception), Dale Dickey (Winter's Bone), Ella Fanning (Somewhere), Rebecca Hall (The Town), Rosamund Pike (Made in Dagenham), Miranda Richardson (Made in Dagenham), Dianne Wiest (Rabbit Hole), Michelle Williams (Shutter Island), Olivia Williams (The Ghost Writer)