Predictions - Screenplays

BEST WRITING, SCREENPLAY BASED ON MATERIAL PREVIOUSLY PRODUCED OR PUBLISHED127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

Other Possibilities: Barney's Version, Fair Game, The Ghost Writer, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, I Love You Philip Morris, Rabbit Hole, Scott Pilgrim vs. the World, Shutter Island, The Town
Aaron Sorkin's script for The Social Network is far and away the frontrunner. Toy Story 3 and True Grit are safe bets. 127 Hours and Winter's Bone have to overcome the obstacle of being seen by few, but the writers' branch has never been afraid to go for smaller films anyways.* The Ghost Writer and The Town seem like the most likely spoilers.



BEST WRITING, SCREENPLAY WRITTEN DIRECTLY FOR THE SCREEN Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids are All Right
The King's Speech
Other Possibilities: Animal Kingdom, Another Year, Biutiful, Blue Valentine, Conviction, Get Low, Hereafter, Made in Dagenham, Please Give
These all feel safe; however, I could see the screenplays for Another Year, Blue Valentine, or Please Give getting in, too. The problem is, whose place(s) would they take? The Fighter is probably the most vulnerable.

*2009: The Messenger, In the Loop; 2008: Frozen River, Happy-Go-Lucky, In Bruges; 2007: Lars and the Real Girl, The Savages, Away From Her; etc.