New frontrunner?

I'd say so. I just saw that The King's Speech director, Tom Hooper, won the DGA. We'll see what happens at the SAG Awards tonight. I'm predicting The Fighter to win Best Ensemble. That scenario really wouldn't change things. If The Social Network wins, I'd say we have an exciting two-horse race. If The King's Speech wins, then it's definitely on its way to winning Best Picture at the Oscars.

SAG Awards

TBS and TNT will simultaneously broadcast the 17th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards on Sunday, January 30th at 8 PM. The will awards celebrate the most memorable performances to grace the stage and screen of 2010. Below is a listing of the nominees, along with my predictions of who will win (and who could surprise).


FILM

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A CAST IN A MOTION PICTUREBlack Swan
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
The King's SpeechThe Social NetworkPREDICTION: The FighterSURPRISE?: The Social Network

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLEJeff Bridges, True GritRobert Duvall, Get LowJesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's SpeechJames Franco, 127 Hours
PREDICTION: Colin Firth, The King's SpeechSURPRISE?: James Franco, 127 HoursOUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLEAnnette Bening, The Kids Are All RightNicole Kidman, Rabbit HoleJennifer Lawrence, Winter's BoneNatalie Portman, Black SwanHilary Swank, Conviction
PREDICTION: Natalie Portman, Black SwanSURPRISE?: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All RightOUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLEChristian Bale, The FighterJohn Hawkes, Winter's BoneJeremy Renner, The TownMark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All RightGeoffrey Rush, The King's SpeechPREDICTION: Christian Bale, The FighterSURPRISE?: Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLEAmy Adams, The FighterHelena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Mila Kunis, Black SwanMelissa Leo, The FighterHailee Steinfeld, True GritPREDICTION: Melissa Leo, The FighterSURPRISE?: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit 
TELEVISION
 
You should probably take these with a grain of salt as I am not as up on television as I am on movies.

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY AN ENSEMBLE IN A DRAMA SERIES
Boardwalk Empire
The Closer
Dexter
The Good Wife
Mad Men 
PREDICTION: Boardwalk Empire
SURPRISE?: Mad Men

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY AN ENSEMBLE IN A COMEDY SERIES 
30 Rock
Glee
Hot in Cleveland
Modern Family
The Office
PREDICTION: Modern Family 
SURPRISE?: 30 Rock
 
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad 
Michael C. Hall, Dexter 
Jon Hamm, Mad Men 
Hugh Laurie, House 
PREDICTION: Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire 
SURPRISE?: Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad 
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Glenn Close, Damages
Mariska Hargitay, Law & Order: SVU 
Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men 
Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer 
PREDICTION: Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer 
SURPRISE?: Glenn Close, Damages 
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES 
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Steve Carell, The Office
Chris Colfer, Glee 
Ed O'Neill, Modern Family 
PREDICTION: Steve Carell, The Office 
SURPRISE?: Chris Colfer, Glee 
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey, 30 Rock 
Jane Lynch, Glee
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Betty White, Hot in Cleveland
PREDICTION: Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
SURPRISE?: Jane Lynch, Glee 
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A TELEVISION MOVIE OR MINISERIES 
John Goodman, You Don't Know Jack 
Al Pacino, You Don't Know Jack 
Dennis Quaid, The Special Relationship
Edgar Ramirez, Carlos 
Patrick Stewart, Macbeth 
PREDICTION: Al Pacino, You Don't Know Jack 
SURPRISE?: Edgar Ramirez, Carlos

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A TELEVISION MOVIE OR MINISERIES 
Claire Danes, Temple Grandin
Catherine O'Hara, Temple Grandin 
Julia Ormond, Temple Grandin 
Winona Ryder, When Love is Not Enough: The Lois Wilson Story 
Susan Sarandon, You Don't Know Jack 
PREDICTION: Claire Danes, Temple Grandin 
SURPRISE?: Not gonna happen.

The Nominations

How did I do?

Best Picture
"Black Swan," Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver and Scott Franklin, Producers
"The Fighter" David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman and Mark Wahlberg, Producers
"Inception," Emma Thomas and Christopher Nolan, Producers
"The Kids Are All Right," Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte and Celine Rattray, Producers
"The King's Speech," Iain Canning, Emile Sherman and Gareth Unwin, Producers
"127 Hours," Christian Colson, Danny Boyle and John Smithson, Producers
"The Social Network," Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti, Michael De Luca and Ceán, Producers
"Toy Story 3" Darla K. Anderson, Producer
"True Grit" Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers
"Winter's Bone" Anne Rosellini and Alix Madigan-Yorkin, Producers

9/10 - I had The Town over 127 Hours.

Actor in a Leading Role
Javier Bardem in "Biutiful"
Jeff Bridges in "True Grit"
Jesse Eisenberg in "The Social Network"
Colin Firth in "The King's Speech"
James Franco in "127 Hours"

5/5

Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale in "The Fighter"
John Hawkes in "Winter's Bone"
Jeremy Renner in "The Town"
Mark Ruffalo in "The Kids Are All Right"
Geoffrey Rush in "The King's Speech"

4/5 - I thought Andrew Garfield from The Social Network would get in over John Hawkes.

Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening in "The Kids Are All Right"
Nicole Kidman in "Rabbit Hole"
Jennifer Lawrence in "Winter's Bone"
Natalie Portman in "Black Swan"
Michelle Williams in "Blue Valentine"

5/5

Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams in "The Fighter"
Helena Bonham Carter in "The King's Speech"
Melissa Leo in "The Fighter"
Hailee Steinfeld in "True Grit"
Jacki Weaver in "Animal Kingdom"

4/5 - I didn't think enough people had seen Weaver's film, so I went with Mila Kunis from Black Swan.

Animated Feature Film
"How to Train Your Dragon" Chris Sanders and Dean DeBlois
"The Illusionist" Sylvain Chomet
"Toy Story 3" Lee Unkrich

3/3

Art Direction
"Alice in Wonderland"
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1"
"Inception"
"The King's Speech"
"True Grit"

3/5 - Alice in Wonderland? Really? I thought that Black Swan and Shutter Island would get in over Alice and Harry Potter.

Cinematography
"Black Swan," Matthew Libatique
"Inception," Wally Pfister
"The King's Speech," Danny Cohen
"The Social Network," Jeff Cronenweth
"True Grit," Roger Deakins

4/5 - 127 Hours instead of The Social Network. Guess they weren't feeling colorful this year.

Costume Design
"Alice in Wonderland," Colleen Atwood
"I Am Love," Antonella Cannarozzi
"The King's Speech," Jenny Beavan
"The Tempest," Sandy Powell
"True Grit" Mary Zophres

3/5 - AH! I knew I should have put The Tempest. I guessed Black Swan and Burlesque instead of that and I Am Love.

Directing
"Black Swan," Darren Aronofsky
"The Fighter," David O. Russell
"The King's Speech," Tom Hooper
"The Social Network," David Fincher
"True Grit," Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

4/5 - I had Christopher Nolan (Inception) over the Coen Bros. Definitely an upset.

Documentary (Feature)
"Exit through the Gift Shop," Banksy and Jaimie D'Cruz
"Gasland," Josh Fox and Trish Adlesic
"Inside Job," Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs
"Restrepo," Tim Hetherington and Sebastian Junger
"Waste Land," Lucy Walker and Angus Aynsley

3/5 - No Waiting for Superman. That may be the biggest upset.

Documentary (Short Subject)
"Killing in the Name"
"Poster Girl"
"Strangers No More"
"Sun Come Up"
"The Warriors of Qiugang"

3/5 - I randomly guessed three! Yay!

Film Editing
"Black Swan"
"The Fighter"
"The King's Speech"
"127 Hours"
"The Social Network"

4/5 - NO INCEPTION ??? I didn't see The King's Speech getting in.

Foreign Language Film
"Biutiful," Mexico
"Dogtooth," Greece
"In a Better World," Denmark
"Incendies," Canada
"Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi)," Algeria

3/5 - I had Confessions and Life Above All, not Dogtooth or Outside the Law

Makeup
"Barney's Version," Adrien Morot
"The Way Back," Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk and Yolanda Toussieng
"The Wolfman," Rick Baker and Dave Elsey

1/3 - I guessed Alice in Wonderland, Barney's Version, and True Grit. This is generally a weird category. Remember when Click was nominated?

Music (Original Score)
"How to Train Your Dragon," John Powell
"Inception," Hans Zimmer
"The King's Speech," Alexandre Desplat
"127 Hours," A.R. Rahman
"The Social Network," Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

4/5 - Alice in Wonderland instead 127 Hours.

Music (Original Song)
"Coming Home" from "Country Strong," Music and Lyric by Tom Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsey
"I See the Light" from "Tangled," Music by Alan Menken Lyric by Glenn Slater
"If I Rise" from "127 Hours," Music by A.R. Rahman Lyric by Dido and Rollo Armstrong
"We Belong Together" from "Toy Story 3," Music and Lyric by Randy Newman

3/? - I, er... thought there would be five nominees. I didn't guess "Coming Home." Instead I had "Shine" (Waiting for Superman) and "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me" (Burlesque).

Short Film (Animated)
"Day & Night," Teddy Newton
"The Gruffalo," Jakob Schuh and Max Lang
"Let's Pollute," Geefwee Boedoe
"The Lost Thing," Shaun Tan and Andrew Ruhemann
"Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary)" Bastien Dubois

2/5 - I really don't know much about this one. Yay Day & Night!

Short Film (Live Action)
"The Confession," Tanel Toom
"The Crush," Michael Creagh
"God of Love," Luke Matheny
"Na Wewe," Ivan Goldschmidt
"Wish 143," Ian Barnes and Samantha Waite

2/5 - Again, I don't know a lot about this one.

Sound Editing
"Inception," Richard King
"Toy Story 3," Tom Myers and Michael Silvers
"Tron: Legacy," Gwendolyn Yates Whittle and Addison Teague
"True Grit," Skip Lievsay and Craig Berkey
"Unstoppable," Mark P. Stoeckinger

3/5 - I guessed How to Train Your Dragon and Salt, not True Grit or Unstoppable.

Sound Mixing
"Inception," Lora Hirschberg, Gary A. Rizzo and Ed Novick
"The King's Speech," Paul Hamblin, Martin Jensen and John Midgley
"Salt," Jeffrey J. Haboush, Greg P. Russell, Scott Millan and William Sarokin
"The Social Network," Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick and Mark Weingarten
"True Grit," Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland

3/5 - The King's Speech? Not Iron Man 2 or Tron: Legacy?

Visual Effects
"Alice in Wonderland," Ken Ralston, David Schaub, Carey Villegas and Sean Phillips
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1," Tim Burke, John Richardson, Christian Manz and Nicolas Aithadi
"Hereafter," Michael Owens, Bryan Grill, Stephan Trojanski and Joe Farrell
"Inception," Paul Franklin, Chris Corbould, Andrew Lockley and Peter Bebb
"Iron Man 2," Janek Sirrs, Ben Snow, Ged Wright and Daniel Sudick

4/5 - I did not see Hereafter taking Tron's spot.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
"127 Hours," Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
"The Social Network," Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin
"Toy Story 3," Screenplay by Michael Arndt; Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
"True Grit," Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
"Winter's Bone," Adapted for the screen by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini

5/5

Writing (Original Screenplay)
"Another Year," Written by Mike Leigh
"The Fighter," Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson; Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
"Inception," Written by Christopher Nolan
"The Kids Are All Right," Written by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
"The King's Speech," Screenplay by David Seidler

4/5 - I should have known they would go with old favorite Mike Leigh over Black Swan.

Predictions - Picture, Director, Actor, Actress

BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
Other possibilities: 127 Hours, Animal Kingdom, Another Year, Blue Valentine, The Ghost Writer, How to Train Your Dragon, I Am Love, Shutter Island


BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
David Fincher, The Social NetworkTom Hooper, The King's SpeechChristopher Nolan, InceptionDavid O. Russell, The Fighter
Other Possibilities: Ben Affleck (The Town), Danny Boyle (127 Hours), Lisa Cholodenko (The Kids Are All Right), Derek Cianfrance (Blue Valentine), The Coen Bros. (True Grit), Sofia Coppola (Somewhere), Debra Granik (Winter's Bone), Mike Leigh (Another Year), Roman Polanski (The Ghost Writer), Martin Scorsese (Shutter Island)



BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social NetworkColin Firth, The King's SpeechJames Franco, 127 Hours
Other Possibilities: Leonardo DiCaprio (Inception or Shutter Island), Robert Duvall (Get Low), Paul Giamatti (Barney's Version), Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine), Mark Wahlberg (The Fighter)



BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Other Possibilities: Sally Hawkins (Made in Dagenham), Lesley Manville (Another Year), Julianne Moore (The Kids Are All Right), Noomi Rapace (The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo), Hilary Swank (Conviction), Emma Stone (Easy A), Tilda Swinton (I Am Love)

Predictions - Supporting Actor

The rest of these will have to go without commentary, because I have to sleep.


BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Christian Bale, The Fighter --- This is his year. He has been a reliable actor with extreme dedication to his craft for years. He has a lot of screentime and a showy role, lost a lot of weight, and plays a drug addict. Very baity. He has the Globe, BFCA, NBR, and many citations from critics' groups. The SAG and BAFTA will probably go to him, and then, OSCAR!



Andrew Garfield, The Social Network --- He's not a lock, but he is the most sympathetic character in the BP frontrunner. Plus, he's an up-and-comer, starring in the new Spider-man movie in 2012. Two things lead me to believe he may be ignored: his age and the lack of a SAG nomination. Oscar likes older actors and the acting branch is the largest one in the Academy. That may be a problem tomorrow.


Jeremy Renner, The Town --- Another rising star. His nomination last year helps his momentum this year. He has yet to win any awards for the performance, but was nominated by all the other major awards bodies. The success of his film, both critically and commercially, is no doubt an asset as well. He has no chance of winning, but I believe he will be nominated.




Mark Ruffalo, The Kids are All Right --- Ah, Mark Ruffalo. A respected actor who has turned in many fine performances over the years. He has never been nominated, though, probably due to his subtle style. He's forty-three now and in a BP hopeful. The time for his recognition has come.




Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech --- Before The Fighter came out, he was the frontrunner. He still is Bale's biggest competition, but his buzz has gone down. He already has an Oscar (1996 - Best Actor for Shine), too, and sometimes voters are hesitant to award a second one. It looks like he'll just have to settle for a nomination, which he will surely receive.



Next in Line: Matt Damon (True Grit) has received no awards this season for his performance. Still, True Grit has a lot of momentum right now and Damon seems pretty popular in the Hollywood community. He even received a lifetime achievement award last year! If someone were to surprise, a la Maggie Gyllenhaal last year, it would be him. Also in the mix are SAG nominee John Hawkes (Winter's Bone) and BFCA nominee Sam Rockwell (Conviction). Hawkes is in a small critical favorite which could be nominated for Best Picture and Rockwell, like Bale and Ruffalo, is a hardworking actor who has never been recognized, despite of a plethora of good work.

Other Possibilities: Vincent Cassel (Black Swan), Michael Douglas (Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps), Aaron Eckhart (Rabbit Hole), Armie Hammer (The Social Network), Bill Murray (Get Low), Guy Pearce (The King's Speech), Pete Postlethwaite (The Town)

Predictions - Supporting Actress

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLEAmy Adams, The Fighter --- She's an A-list actress looking to garner her third Oscar nomination in three years and her film is going to be nominated for Best Picture. The role is the classic "supportive girlfriend/wife" that does so well in Supporting Actress. Also, she's playing against type. The question is not so much if she'll be nominated, but can she win? Her main competition is her co-star, Melissa Leo, who definitely has the showier role (not to mention the Golden Globe and the Critics' Choice Award).

Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech --- Another supporting lady in a probable Best Picture nominee. She's also another "supportive girlfriend/wife," and a royal one to boot. Oscar loves royalty. She's an industry veteran and was nominated by the SAG, the HFPA, the BFCA, and the BAFTAs. I don't think she'll win, but she's in.


Mila Kunis, Black Swan --- One of the surprises of the season was when this actress gained more traction than her older, previously Oscar-nom'd co-star, Barbara Hershey. From That 70's Show to the Academy Awards; she looks like she'll go all the way. She is more vulnerable than the other contenders, though. We'll see if her name is called tomorrow morning.


Melissa Leo, The Fighter --- Going into the BFCA/Globes weekend (1/14-1/16), it looked like there was no frontrunner in this race. By Sunday night, Leo had two major awards and officially led the race. Her nomination is a certainty and, at this moment, I do think she'll win; however, there is strong competition from the other ladies and she didn't score a BAFTA nod. Will internal competition and a potential lack of support from British voters keep her from winning one of Hollywood's highest honors?

Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit --- Without a doubt, this is the most confusing contender in any category. She's obviously the lead in the movie, but is being campaigned supporting due to her age. Most awards bodies have placed her in supporting, but the BAFTAs called her leading. Where will she go? She definitely has fans, but vote splitting could ruin her chances at a nomination.



Next in line: Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom), Lesley Manville (Another Year), and Barbara Hershey (Black Swan) all have good chances of being spoilers. Weaver just needs enough people to see her film; Manville needs that as well as enough people putting her in supporting; and Hershey needs people to pick her over her younger costar. Steinfeld's category confusion could be beneficial to any of these ladies, too.

Other Possibilities: Marion Cotillard (Inception), Dale Dickey (Winter's Bone), Ella Fanning (Somewhere), Rebecca Hall (The Town), Rosamund Pike (Made in Dagenham), Miranda Richardson (Made in Dagenham), Dianne Wiest (Rabbit Hole), Michelle Williams (Shutter Island), Olivia Williams (The Ghost Writer)

Predictions - Screenplays

BEST WRITING, SCREENPLAY BASED ON MATERIAL PREVIOUSLY PRODUCED OR PUBLISHED127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

Other Possibilities: Barney's Version, Fair Game, The Ghost Writer, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, I Love You Philip Morris, Rabbit Hole, Scott Pilgrim vs. the World, Shutter Island, The Town
Aaron Sorkin's script for The Social Network is far and away the frontrunner. Toy Story 3 and True Grit are safe bets. 127 Hours and Winter's Bone have to overcome the obstacle of being seen by few, but the writers' branch has never been afraid to go for smaller films anyways.* The Ghost Writer and The Town seem like the most likely spoilers.



BEST WRITING, SCREENPLAY WRITTEN DIRECTLY FOR THE SCREEN Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids are All Right
The King's Speech
Other Possibilities: Animal Kingdom, Another Year, Biutiful, Blue Valentine, Conviction, Get Low, Hereafter, Made in Dagenham, Please Give
These all feel safe; however, I could see the screenplays for Another Year, Blue Valentine, or Please Give getting in, too. The problem is, whose place(s) would they take? The Fighter is probably the most vulnerable.

*2009: The Messenger, In the Loop; 2008: Frozen River, Happy-Go-Lucky, In Bruges; 2007: Lars and the Real Girl, The Savages, Away From Her; etc.

Predictions - Cinematography & Editing

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY127 Hours
Black Swan
InceptionThe King's Speech
True Grit
Other Possibilities: Eat,Pray,Love, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 1, Never Let Me Go, Shutter Island, The Social Network, The Way Back

Roger Deakins (True Grit) and Wally Pfister (Inception) need not worry given their "Oscar favorites" status and the fact that their films were critical/box-office hits. Anthony Dod Mantle, on the other hand, may have won an Oscar two years ago for Slumdog Millionaire, but 127 Hours hasn't been faring that well this awards season. Plus, it missed out on an ACS nom. If another film were to get in, I would guess The Social Network.



BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN EDITING127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Social Network
Other Possibilities: Blue Valentine, The King's Speech, Scott Pilgrim vs. The World, Shutter Island, The Town, True Grit
All of my predictions were nominated for ACE Eddies except for 127 Hours. It's totally possible that The King's Speech will be nominated instead. Blue Valentine and Scott Pilgrim are two longshots with big fans that I think could be surprise nominees, if there are any.

Predictions - Art Direction, Costumes, F/X, Makeup

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN ART DIRECTION (i.e. set design and decoration)Black Swan
InceptionThe King's Speech
Shutter Island
True Grit
Other Possibilities: Alice in Wonderland, Burlesque, The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, Get Low, The Ghost Writer, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 1, Robin Hood, The Social Network, Tron: Legacy

Alice in Wonderland could very easily take one of the slots (Shutter Island, probably), but I know some people - myself included - found it cluttered and on the unattractive side. If enough Academy voters think that, it's out. My other four "predictees" are BP hopefuls looking to gain support from the tech branches.


BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
Burlesque
The King's Speech
True Grit
Other Possibilities: Agora, Inception, Made in Dagenham, Robin Hood, Secretariat, Shutter Island, The Tempest, Tron: Legacy
Period pieces dominate this category, so predicting Black Swan may be a mistake, but I feel it has a lot of momentum going right now. Alice in Wonderland and The King's Speech both have Oscar-winning designers, which helps secure their places. Burlesque could be in trouble, though, especially if voters decide to go with old favorite Sandy Powell, designer for The Tempest. To date, Powell has eight nominations and three wins.



BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTSAlice in WonderlandHarry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 1
Inception
Iron Man 2
Tron: Legacy
Other Finalists: Hereafter, Scott Pilgrim Vs. the World
Ah, a category with finalists. That was easy. Sorry Hereafter and Scott Pilgrim. Seriously though, if either one of the "other finalists" is nominated, it will be a major shocker.


BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP (Includes hair, i.e. wigs)Alice in Wonderland
Barney's Version
True Grit

Other Finalists: The Fighter, Jonah Hex, The Way Back, The Wolfman

Outside of Alice in Wonderland, I have no idea. Unlike most other categories, the finalists aren't comprised of BP hopefuls and big box-office hits. Your guess is as good as mine.

Predictions - Score & Song

BEST ORIGINAL SCOREAlice in Wonderland (Danny Elfman)
How to Train Your Dragon (John Powell)
Inception (Hans Zimmer)
The King's Speech (Alexandre Desplat)
The Social Network (Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross)

Other Possibilities: 127 Hours (AR Rahman), The Ghost Writer (Alexandre Desplat), The Last Airbender (James Newton Howard), Never Let Me Go (Rachel Portman), Tron: Legacy (Daft Punk)

The Social Network will probably take this award home; it won the Critics' Choice Award and the Golden Globe. Inception and The King's Speech are likely Best Picture nominees, which boosts their chances of being nominated here. I definitely think at least one of the other two (Alice in Wonderland and How to Train Your Dragon) will be nominated, but one may be replaced by AR Rahman's 127 Hours score. Anything besides the six I mentioned would be surprising.



BEST ORIGINAL SONG"I See the Light" from Tangled"If I Rise" from 127 Hours"Shine" from Waiting for Superman"We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3"You Haven't Seen the Last of Me" from Burlesque
Other Possibilities: "Bound to You" from Burlesque, "Coming Home" from Country Strong, "Sticks and Stones" from How to Train Your Dragon, "There's a Place for Us" from The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader
Musicals like Tangled and Burlesque have better shots than the rest of making the cut by virtue of having so many original songs. This category has a unique voting system; voters rate all of the eligible songs on a scale of 6 to 10. Only songs that receive scores of 8.25 or better are allowed to receive nominations. Due to this oddball setup, upsets are not unheard of (see: frontrunner "The Wrestler" missing out in 2008).

Predictions - Sound Editing & Mixing

As many people do not really know what the difference between these two awards is, I feel the need to provide some explanation:

SOUND EDITING - Also called "sound design." Sound editing involves the creation of sounds.
SOUND MIXING - The combining of all the recorded sounds (dialogue, ambiance/atmosphere, effects, & music) into one mix.

Now that that's cleared up, onto the predictions!



BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITINGHow to Train Your Dragon
Inception
Salt
Toy Story 3
Tron: Legacy
Other Possibilities: Alice in Wonderland, Black Swan, The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, Despicable Me, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 1, Iron Man 2, 127 Hours, Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time, Red, Shrek Forever After, Shutter Island, The Social Network, Tangled, The Town, True Grit, Unstoppable


BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUNDInception
Iron Man 2
Salt
The Social Network
Tron: Legacy
Other Possibilities: Alice in Wonderland, Black Swan, Burlesque, The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, Despicable Me, The Fighter, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 1, How to Train Your Dragon, 127 Hours, Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time, Red, Shrek Forever After, Shutter Island, Tangled, The Town, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Unstoppable

In these two categories, Academy voters tend to favor action films, animated films, and musicals. As action and animated are two of Hollywood's favorite genres, and as there aren't many precursors for sound, predicting what will be nominated here can be tough. This year, Inception feels like the only sure thing.

Predictions - Animated, Doc, Foreign

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

The Rest of the Eligible Films: Despicable Me, The Dreams of Jinsha, Idiots and Angels, Legend of the Guardians, Megamind, My Dog Tulip, Shrek Forever After, Summer Wars, Tangled, Tinkerbell and the Great Fairy Rescue


Fifteen films are eligible this year, making this a three nomination category. (Sixteen films are required to widen the field to five.) The animated race is interesting because voters are required to see at least 80% of the qualified pictures before they can cast their votes. This sometimes allows for surprise nominees - like last year's The Secret of Kells. That's why I'm predicting The Illusionist, a French critical darling, over box-office hits Despicable Me and Tangled for the third slot. The latter two films were well-reviewed, but they don't have the arty flair of The Illusionist. The other two slots will almost assuredly go to Toy Story 3 (a Best Picture contender) and the much-beloved How to Train Your Dragon. The actual Oscar is Toy Story's to lose.



BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Subject matter in brackets.
Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Eliot Spitzer [Title says all]
Exit Through the Gift Shop [Graffiti artists]
Inside Job [Economic crisis]
Restrepo [US troops]
Waiting for Superman [Education system]

The Other Finalists: Enemies of the People, Gasland, Genius Within: The Inner Life of Glenn Gould, The Lottery, Precious Life, Quest for Honor, The Way of Life, The Tillman Story, Waste Land, William Kunstler: Disturbing the Universe

Despite the fact that Waiting for Superman has the win pretty much locked up before it has even been nominated, the documentary category is quite competitive this year. A lot of films have gotten a lot of love. There's the eccentric Exit Through the Gift Shop, the serious Inside Job, and the show biz-centric Joan Rivers: A Piece of Work, which didn't even make the top fifteen. One way to sift through the plethora of contenders is to focus on subject matter; the more topical, the better. Being pensive doesn't hurt either. I've listed the five films I think will make the cut, but the truth is that any of them (besides Superman) could be snubbed.



BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Countries submitted from in brackets.
Biutiful [MEXICO]
Kokuhaku (Confessions) [JAPAN]
Life Above All [SOUTH AFRICA]
In a Better World [DENMARK]
Incendies [CANADA]

Other Finalists: Dogtooth, Outside the Law, Simple Simon, Tambien la Lluvia (Even the Rain)

Although In a Better World took home the Golden Globe, I still think Biutiful will win the Oscar, what with its international movie star (Javier Bardem) and Hollywood-respected director (Alejandro González Iñárritu). One thing to note, however, is that at the last few ceremonies, the "big foreign film of the year" didn't win.* You never know what surprises could occur.

*2009: The Secret in Their Eyes beat The White Ribbon, 2008: Departures beat Waltz with Bashir, 2006: The Lives of Others beat Pan's Labyrinth.

Predictions - Short Films

I'm starting with the categories I know nothing about - the shorts. I mostly make random guesses based on which titles sound the most nominate-able. Luckily for me, there are finalists for all three short categories, so predicting isn't too painful.


BEST DOCUMENTARY, SHORT SUBJECTS
Born Sweet
Killing in the Name
Living for 32
Strangers No More
Sun Come Up
Other Finalists: One Thousand Pictures: RFK's Last Journey, Poster Girl, The Warriors of Quigang



BEST SHORT FILM, ANIMATED
Coyote Falls
Day & Night
Let's Pollute
Sensology
The Silence beneath the Bark

Other Finalists: The Cow Who Wanted to Be a Hamburger, The Gruffalo, The Last Thing, Madagascar, Carnet de Voyage, Urs
I have actually seen one of these (Day & Night) and am pretty confident that it will be nominated - it might even win. It was a Pixar short and those tend to do well in this category.



BEST SHORT FILM, LIVE ACTION
Ana's Playground
The Confession
Na Wewe
The Six Dollar Fifty Man
Sma Barn Stora Ord

Other Finalists: The Crush, God of Love, Seeds of the Fall, Shoe, Wish 143

The Oscars Are Coming! The Oscars Are Coming!

On Tuesday morning, the nominees for the 83^rd annual Academy Awards will be announced. This weekend, I will be posting my predictions (with commentary!) for which films will be honored and which will be snubbed in all of the Academy’s twenty-four categories.

Here we go!