Thursday, January 16, 2014

Oscar Nominations - Final Predictions

Best Picture

1. 12 Years a Slave (GLOBE WIN, SAG, AFI, BFCA, Indie Spirit, NBR, PGA, DGA, BAFTA, ACE)
2. American Hustle (GLOBE WIN, SAG, AFI, BFCA, NYFCC, PGA, DGA, WGA, BAFTA, ACE)
3. Gravity (Golden Globes, AFI, BFCA, LAFCA, NBR, PGA, DGA, BAFTA, ACE)
4. Captain Phillips (Golden Globes, AFI, BFCA, PGA, DGA, WGA, BAFTA, ACE)
5. Nebraska (Golden Globes, AFI, BFCA, Indie Spirit, NBR, PGA, WGA, ACE)
6. The Wolf of Wall Street (Golden Globes, AFI, BFCA, NBR, PGA, DGA, WGA, ACE)
7. Dallas Buyers Club (SAG, BFCA, NBR, PGA, WGA)
8. Her (Golden Globes, AFI, BFCA, LAFCA, NBR, PGA, WGA, ACE)
9. Inside Llewyn Davis (Golden Globes, AFI, BFCA, Indie Spirit, NBR, ACE)
10. Saving Mr. Banks (AFI, BFCA, NBR, PGA, ACE)

 What else? Philomena

 Potential Surprises: August: Osage County, Before Midnight, Blue Jasmine, Blue is the Warmest Color, Fruitvale Station, Lee Daniels' The Butler

 Unlikely: All is Lost, Enough Said, Frances Ha, The Great Gatsby, Prisoners, Rush, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, Short Term 12

I'm expecting at least 8 nominees, hence the red for six through eight.

Best Director

  • Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
  • Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
  • Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
  • David O. Russell, American Hustle
  • Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Who else? Spike Jonze, Her

Potential surprises: Ethan and Joel Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis; Alexander Payne, Nebraska; John-Marc Vallée, Dallas Buyers Club

Unlikely: Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine; Lee Daniels, Lee Daniels' The Butler; Stephen Frears, Philomena; John Lee Hancock, Saving Mr. Banks;  Abdellatif Kechiche, Blue is the Warmest Color

Best Actor

  • Bruce Dern, Nebraska
  • Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
  • Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
  • Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
  • Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Who else? Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis; Robert Redford, All is Lost

 Potential Surprises: Christian Bale, American Hustle

Unlikely: Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom; Joaquin Phoenix, Her; Forrest Whitaker, Lee Daniels' The Butler

Best Actress

  • Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
  • Sandra Bullock, Gravity
  • Judi Dench, Philomena
  • Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
  • Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
Who else? Amy Adams, American Hustle

Potential Surprises: Adèle Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Color

Unlikely: Julie Deply, Before Midnight; Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha; Brie Larson, Short Term 12; Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Enough Said; Kate Winslet, Labor Day

Best Supporting Actor

  • Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
  • Daniel Brühl, Rush
  • Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
  • Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
  • Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Who else? Will Forte, Nebraska; James Gandolfini, Enough Said; Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street

Potential Surprises: Steve Coogan, Philomena; James Franco, Spring Breakers; Tom Hanks. Saving Mr. Banks; Matthew McConaughey, Mud

Unlikely: Chris Cooper, August: Osage County, John Goodman, Inside Llewyn Davis; Jake Gyllenhaal, Prisoners; David Oyelowo, Lee Daniels' The Butler; Jeremy Renner, American Hustle

Best Supporting Actress

  • Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
  • Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
  • Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
  • June Squibb, Nebraska
  • Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler
Who else? Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine

Potential Surprises: Amy Adams, Her; Jennifer Garner, Dallas Buyers Club; Margot Martindale, August: Osage County; Sarah Paulson, 12 Years a Slave; Margot Robbie, The Wolf of Wall Street

Unlikely: Scarlett Johansson, Her; Melissa Leo, Prisoners; Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis; Léa Seydoux, Blue is the Warmest Color; Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station; Emma Watson, The Bling Ring

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • 12 Years a Slave
  • Before Midnight
  • Captain Phillips
  • Philomena
  • The Wolf of Wall Street
What else? August: Osage County

 Potential Surprises: The Bling Ring, Blue is the Warmest Color, Short Term 12, The Spectacular Now

 Unlikely: Frozen, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, What Maisie Knew

Best Original Screenplay

  • American Hustle
  • Blue Jasmine
  • Her
  • Inside Llewyn Davis
  • Nebraska
What else? Dallas Buyers Club, Enough Said, Fruitvale Station, Gravity

Potential Surprises: Frances Ha, Lee Daniels' The Butler, Mud, Prisoners, Rush, Saving Mr. Banks

Unlikely: All is Lost, Spring Breakers, Wadjda

Best Editing

  • 12 Years a Slave
  • American Hustle
  • Captain Phillips
  • Gravity
  • The Wolf of Wall Street
What else? Inside Llewyn Davis, Nebraska, Rush

Potential Surprises: Dallas Buyers Club, Her

Unlikely: All is Lost, August: Osage County, Fruitvale Station, Lee Daniels' The Butler, Prisoners, Saving Mr. Banks

Best Cinematography

  • 12 Years a Slave
  • Captain Phillips
  • Gravity
  • Inside Llewyn Davis
  • Prisoners
What else? The Grandmaster, Her, Nebraska

Potential Surprises: The Great Gatsby, Rush, Spring Breakers

Unlikely: All is Lost, Blue is the Warmest Color, The Invisible Woman

Best Production Design

  • 12 Years a Slave
  • American Hustle
  • Gravity
  • The Great Gatsby
  • Saving Mr. Banks
What else? The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

 Potential Surprises: Her, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Inside Llewyn Davis, Lee Daniels' The Butler

 Unlikely: August: Osage County, Blue Jasmine, Captain Phillips, Elysium, The Grandmaster, The Invisible Woman, Oblivion, Oz the Great and Powerful, Star Trek Into Darkness, The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Costume Design

  • 12 Years a Slave
  • American Hustle
  • The Great Gatsby
  • The Invisible Woman
  • Saving Mr. Banks
What else? The Grandmaster, Lee Daniels' The Butler, Oz the Great and Powerful

 Potential Surprises: Dallas Buyers Club, Her, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, The Wolf of Wall Street

 Unlikely: The Bling Ring, Blue Jasmine, Inside Llewyn Davis, The Lone Ranger, Nebraska, Philomena, Romeo & Juliet, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

  • American Hustle
  • The Great Gatsby
  • Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
Also eligible: Dallas Buyers Club, Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, The Lone Ranger

Best Visual Effects

  • Gravity
  • The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
  • Iron Man 3
  • Oblivion
  • Pacific Rim
Also eligible: Elysium, The Lone Ranger, Star Trek Into Darkness, Thor: The Dark World, World War Z

Best Sound Editing

  • All is Lost
  • Captain Phillips
  • Gravity
  • Iron Man 3
  • Lone Survivor
What else? The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Man of Steel, Pacific Rim, Rush

 Potential Surprises: Elysium, The Lone Ranger, Oblivion, Star Trek Into Darkness, World War Z

 Unlikely: Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2, The Conjuring, Despicable Me 2, Ender's Game, Monsters University, Thor: The Dark World, The Wolverine

Best Sound Mixing

  • All is Lost
  • Captain Phillips
  • Gravity
  • Inside Llewyn Davis
  • Rush
What else? The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Iron Man 3, Lone Survivor, Man of Steel

 Potential Surprises: Frozen, The Great Gatsby, The Lone Ranger, Oblivion, Pacific Rim, Saving Mr. Banks, Star Trek Into Darkness, 12 Years a Slave, World War Z

 Unlikely: American Hustle, The Conjuring, Elysium, Ender's Game, Her, Thor: The Dark World, The Wolverine

Best Original Score

  • 12 Years a Slave
  • All is Lost
  • Gravity
  • Philomena
  • Saving Mr. Banks
What else? The Book Thief

 Potential Surprises: Captain Phillips, Her

 Unlikely: Before Midnight, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Lee Daniels' The Butler, Man of Steel, Oblivion, Oz the Great and Powerful, Prisoners, Secret Life of Walter Mitty, Short Term 12

Best Original Song

  • "Let it Go" from Frozen
  • "Over the Love" from The Great Gatsby
  • "Young and Beautiful" from The Great Gatsby
  • "The Moon Song" from Her
  • "Ordinary Love" from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Alternate Choice: "Stay Alive" from The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

 Who knows? "Amen" from All is Lost, "Last Mile Home" from August: Osage County, "He Loves Me Still" from Black Nativity, "Happy" from Despicable Me 2, "100$ Bill" from The Great Gatsby, "A Little Party Never Killed Nobody (All We Got)" from The Great Gatsby, "Over the Love" from The Great Gatsby, "I See Fire" from The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, "Atlas" from The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, "In the Middle of the Night" from Lee Daniels' The Butler, "You and I Ain't Nothin' No More" from Lee Daniels' The Butler, "Oblivion" from Oblivion, "Sweeter Than Fiction" from One Chance, "So You Know What It's Like" from Short Term 12, "Cut Me Some Slack" from Sound City, "You Can't Fix This" from Sound City, "Becomes the Color" from Stoker, "My Lord Sunshine (Sunrise)" from 12 Years a Slave

Best Foreign Language Film

  • Broken Circle Breakdown
  • The Grandmaster
  • The Great Beauty
  • The Hunt
  • The Notebook
Also eligible: An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker, The Missing Picture, Omar, Two Lives

Best Animated Feature

  • The Croods
  • Ernest & Celestine
  • Frozen
  • Monsters University
  • The Wind Rises
Potential Surprises: Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2, Despicable Me 2, A Letter to Momo

 Also eligible: Epic, The Fake, Free Birds, Khumba, Legend of Sarila, O Apostolo, Planes, Puella Magi Madoka Magica: The Movie, Rio 2096: A Story of Love and Fury, The Smurfs 2, Turbo

Best Documentary Feature

  • 20 Feet from Stardom
  • The Act of Killing
  • Blackfish
  • The Square
  • Stories We Tell
What else? The Crash Reel, Cutie & the Boxer, God Loves Uganda, Pussy Riot: A Punk Prayer

 Also eligible: The Armstrong Lie, Dirty Wars, First Cousin: Once Removed, Life According to Sam, Which Way is the Front Line From Here?, Tim's Vermeer

Best Animated Short

1. Get a Horse
2. Feral
3. Mr. Hublot
4. Gloria Victoria
5. Room on the Broom

 Also eligible: Hollow Land, The Missing Scarf, Possessions, Requiem for a Romance, Subconscious Password

Best Documentary Short

1. The Lady in Number 6
2. Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall
3. Cave Digger
4. Jujitsuing Reality
5. Slomo

 Also eligible: Recollections, Karma Has No Walls, Facing Fear

Best Live Action Short

1. Kush
2. The Voorman Problem
3. Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?
4. Just Before Losing Everything
5. Throat Song

 Also eligible: Helium, Record/Play, Tiger Boy, That Wasn't Me


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