Predictions - Supporting Actor

The rest of these will have to go without commentary, because I have to sleep.


BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Christian Bale, The Fighter --- This is his year. He has been a reliable actor with extreme dedication to his craft for years. He has a lot of screentime and a showy role, lost a lot of weight, and plays a drug addict. Very baity. He has the Globe, BFCA, NBR, and many citations from critics' groups. The SAG and BAFTA will probably go to him, and then, OSCAR!



Andrew Garfield, The Social Network --- He's not a lock, but he is the most sympathetic character in the BP frontrunner. Plus, he's an up-and-comer, starring in the new Spider-man movie in 2012. Two things lead me to believe he may be ignored: his age and the lack of a SAG nomination. Oscar likes older actors and the acting branch is the largest one in the Academy. That may be a problem tomorrow.


Jeremy Renner, The Town --- Another rising star. His nomination last year helps his momentum this year. He has yet to win any awards for the performance, but was nominated by all the other major awards bodies. The success of his film, both critically and commercially, is no doubt an asset as well. He has no chance of winning, but I believe he will be nominated.




Mark Ruffalo, The Kids are All Right --- Ah, Mark Ruffalo. A respected actor who has turned in many fine performances over the years. He has never been nominated, though, probably due to his subtle style. He's forty-three now and in a BP hopeful. The time for his recognition has come.




Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech --- Before The Fighter came out, he was the frontrunner. He still is Bale's biggest competition, but his buzz has gone down. He already has an Oscar (1996 - Best Actor for Shine), too, and sometimes voters are hesitant to award a second one. It looks like he'll just have to settle for a nomination, which he will surely receive.



Next in Line: Matt Damon (True Grit) has received no awards this season for his performance. Still, True Grit has a lot of momentum right now and Damon seems pretty popular in the Hollywood community. He even received a lifetime achievement award last year! If someone were to surprise, a la Maggie Gyllenhaal last year, it would be him. Also in the mix are SAG nominee John Hawkes (Winter's Bone) and BFCA nominee Sam Rockwell (Conviction). Hawkes is in a small critical favorite which could be nominated for Best Picture and Rockwell, like Bale and Ruffalo, is a hardworking actor who has never been recognized, despite of a plethora of good work.

Other Possibilities: Vincent Cassel (Black Swan), Michael Douglas (Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps), Aaron Eckhart (Rabbit Hole), Armie Hammer (The Social Network), Bill Murray (Get Low), Guy Pearce (The King's Speech), Pete Postlethwaite (The Town)