Potential Snubs and Spoilers

Let's break down the possibilities...

Best Picture

Predicted nominees:

• Amour 
• Argo
• Beasts of the Southern Wild
• Django Unchained
• Les Miserables
• Life of Pi
• Lincoln
• Moonrise Kingdom
• Silver Linings Playbook
• Zero Dark Thirty

Watch out for: The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, The Master, Skyfall

Potential spoilers: Anna Karenina, The Dark Knight Rises, Flight, The Impossible

There are six films that feel all locked up: Argo, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, and Zero Dark Thirty. I am confident there will be four other films joining them. If there were nine nominees last year, how could there not be at least that many this year? There are more films with mass amounts of love, and that passion can help them get Best Picture nominations. The question is: which films will fill the four remaining slots? 

As you can see, I went with Amour, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django Unchained, and Moonrise Kingdom. But I would not be surprised if any one of those was left off the shortlist tomorrow morning. Amour is a small foreign film. Those do not normally get a lot of attention from the Academy. Beasts of the Southern Wild may be the little movie that could… or it might be ignored entirely. How many people have seen those two features? Did the people who see them love them enough to put them at the top of their ballots? We will know soon. Moonrise Kingdom seems the most likely to be left out, if you ask me. It has big fans, but the Academy has never really gone for Wes Anderson like the critics have. And while it has gotten some precursor love, it was not a wild amount. The PGA nod helps. Then there’s Django Unchained. A snub would be somewhat surprising, but it’s possible. It’s a hit film, but it came out rather late in the season, and it has not been as adored as some of Tarantino’s previous works.

The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, The Master, and Skyfall are all entirely plausible slot-fillers. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel was a hit film with a respected cast, and it received a SAG nom for Best Ensemble. Skyfall has gotten a lot of recognition all awards season. The problem is that it is a big popcorn film from the James Bond series. It may not be taken seriously by some. The Master does not have this problem. It is most definitely taken seriously. It is a critically-acclaimed work from an established and beloved director, but it is not one that inspires widespread attachment. On the other hand, there will be some people putting it at the top of their lists. Will they be enough to land a Best Picture nomination?

What films could pull off surprise nominations? I am guessing Anna Karenina will be popular with at least part of the Academy, being an admired, if divisive, period piece based on classic literature. It will surely be getting tech nominations. Perhaps it will be lush enough to go further. The Dark Knight Rises has a fanbase. That cannot be denied. However, that fanbase is unlikely to have a lot of members in the Academy. The Dark Knight was more beloved than its follow-up, and it could not manage to get in the big categories. So while The Dark Knight Rises will garner votes, it probably will not amount to much in the end. Flight was well-reviewed and had a good box-office run. But it was not beloved. Then again, I did not think War Horse or Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close were beloved either, and they made it in last year, so I suppose anything could happen. Plus, this particular movie has the Zemeckis-Washington factor; will the Academy want to welcome these Oscar veterans back in a big way? Finally, I simply think The Impossible may pack enough of an emotional punch to sneak in. If enough people have seen it, that is.