BEST ORIGINAL SCOREAlice in Wonderland (Danny Elfman)
How to Train Your Dragon (John Powell)
Inception (Hans Zimmer)
The King's Speech (Alexandre Desplat)
The Social Network (Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross)
Other Possibilities: 127 Hours (AR Rahman), The Ghost Writer (Alexandre Desplat), The Last Airbender (James Newton Howard), Never Let Me Go (Rachel Portman), Tron: Legacy (Daft Punk)
The Social Network will probably take this award home; it won the Critics' Choice Award and the Golden Globe. Inception and The King's Speech are likely Best Picture nominees, which boosts their chances of being nominated here. I definitely think at least one of the other two (Alice in Wonderland and How to Train Your Dragon) will be nominated, but one may be replaced by AR Rahman's 127 Hours score. Anything besides the six I mentioned would be surprising.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG"I See the Light" from Tangled"If I Rise" from 127 Hours"Shine" from Waiting for Superman"We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3"You Haven't Seen the Last of Me" from Burlesque
Other Possibilities: "Bound to You" from Burlesque, "Coming Home" from Country Strong, "Sticks and Stones" from How to Train Your Dragon, "There's a Place for Us" from The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader
Musicals like Tangled and Burlesque have better shots than the rest of making the cut by virtue of having so many original songs. This category has a unique voting system; voters rate all of the eligible songs on a scale of 6 to 10. Only songs that receive scores of 8.25 or better are allowed to receive nominations. Due to this oddball setup, upsets are not unheard of (see: frontrunner "The Wrestler" missing out in 2008).
As many people do not really know what the difference between these two awards is, I feel the need to provide some explanation:
SOUND EDITING - Also called "sound design." Sound editing involves the creation of sounds.
SOUND MIXING - The combining of all the recorded sounds (dialogue, ambiance/atmosphere, effects, & music) into one mix.
Now that that's cleared up, onto the predictions!
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITINGHow to Train Your Dragon
Inception
Salt
Toy Story 3
Tron: Legacy
Other Possibilities: Alice in Wonderland, Black Swan, The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, Despicable Me, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 1, Iron Man 2, 127 Hours, Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time, Red, Shrek Forever After, Shutter Island, The Social Network, Tangled, The Town, True Grit, Unstoppable
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUNDInception
Iron Man 2
Salt
The Social Network
Tron: Legacy
Other Possibilities: Alice in Wonderland, Black Swan, Burlesque, The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, Despicable Me, The Fighter, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 1, How to Train Your Dragon, 127 Hours, Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time, Red, Shrek Forever After, Shutter Island, Tangled, The Town, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Unstoppable
In these two categories, Academy voters tend to favor action films, animated films, and musicals. As action and animated are two of Hollywood's favorite genres, and as there aren't many precursors for sound, predicting what will be nominated here can be tough. This year, Inception feels like the only sure thing.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3
The Rest of the Eligible Films: Despicable Me, The Dreams of Jinsha, Idiots and Angels, Legend of the Guardians, Megamind, My Dog Tulip, Shrek Forever After, Summer Wars, Tangled, Tinkerbell and the Great Fairy Rescue
Fifteen films are eligible this year, making this a three nomination category. (Sixteen films are required to widen the field to five.) The animated race is interesting because voters are required to see at least 80% of the qualified pictures before they can cast their votes. This sometimes allows for surprise nominees - like last year's The Secret of Kells. That's why I'm predicting The Illusionist, a French critical darling, over box-office hits Despicable Me and Tangled for the third slot. The latter two films were well-reviewed, but they don't have the arty flair of The Illusionist. The other two slots will almost assuredly go to Toy Story 3 (a Best Picture contender) and the much-beloved How to Train Your Dragon. The actual Oscar is Toy Story's to lose.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Subject matter in brackets.
Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Eliot Spitzer [Title says all]
Exit Through the Gift Shop [Graffiti artists]
Inside Job [Economic crisis]
Restrepo [US troops]
Waiting for Superman [Education system]
The Other Finalists: Enemies of the People, Gasland, Genius Within: The Inner Life of Glenn Gould, The Lottery, Precious Life, Quest for Honor, The Way of Life, The Tillman Story, Waste Land, William Kunstler: Disturbing the Universe
Despite the fact that Waiting for Superman has the win pretty much locked up before it has even been nominated, the documentary category is quite competitive this year. A lot of films have gotten a lot of love. There's the eccentric Exit Through the Gift Shop, the serious Inside Job, and the show biz-centric Joan Rivers: A Piece of Work, which didn't even make the top fifteen. One way to sift through the plethora of contenders is to focus on subject matter; the more topical, the better. Being pensive doesn't hurt either. I've listed the five films I think will make the cut, but the truth is that any of them (besides Superman) could be snubbed.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Countries submitted from in brackets.
Biutiful [MEXICO]
Kokuhaku (Confessions) [JAPAN]
Life Above All [SOUTH AFRICA]
In a Better World [DENMARK]
Incendies [CANADA]
Other Finalists: Dogtooth, Outside the Law, Simple Simon, Tambien la Lluvia (Even the Rain)
Although In a Better World took home the Golden Globe, I still think Biutiful will win the Oscar, what with its international movie star (Javier Bardem) and Hollywood-respected director (Alejandro González Iñárritu). One thing to note, however, is that at the last few ceremonies, the "big foreign film of the year" didn't win.* You never know what surprises could occur.
*2009: The Secret in Their Eyes beat The White Ribbon, 2008: Departures beat Waltz with Bashir, 2006: The Lives of Others beat Pan's Labyrinth.
I'm starting with the categories I know nothing about - the shorts. I mostly make random guesses based on which titles sound the most nominate-able. Luckily for me, there are finalists for all three short categories, so predicting isn't too painful.
BEST DOCUMENTARY, SHORT SUBJECTS
Born 
Sweet
Killing in the Name
Living for 32
Strangers No More
Sun Come Up
Other Finalists: One Thousand Pictures: RFK's Last Journey, Poster Girl, The Warriors of Quigang
BEST SHORT FILM, ANIMATED
Coyote Falls
Day & Night
Let's Pollute
Sensology
The Silence beneath the Bark
Other Finalists: The Cow Who Wanted to Be a Hamburger, The Gruffalo, The Last Thing, Madagascar, Carnet de Voyage, Urs
I have actually seen one of these (Day & Night) and am pretty confident that it will be nominated - it might even win. It was a Pixar short and those tend to do well in this category.
BEST SHORT FILM, LIVE ACTION
Ana's Playgro
und
The Confession
Na Wewe
The Six Dollar Fifty Man
Sma Barn Stora Ord
Other Finalists: The Crush, God of Love, Seeds of the Fall, Shoe, Wish 143
On Tuesday morning, the nominees for the 83rd annual Academy Awards will be announced. This weekend, I will be posting my predictions (with commentary!) for which films will be honored and which will be snubbed in all of the Academy’s twenty-four categories.
Here we go!
Just the movie awards.
Best Motion Picture (Drama) - The Social Network
Best Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical) - The Kids Are All Right
Best Director - Motion Picture - David Fincher, The Social NetworkBest Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture (Drama) - Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Drama) - Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical) - Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical) - Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture - Christian Bale, The Fighter
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture - Amy Adams, The FighterBest Screenplay - Motion Picture - The Social Network
Best Animated Feature Film - Toy Story 3
Best Foreign Language Film - Biutiful
Best Original Score - Motion Picture - The Social Network
Best Original Song - Motion Picture - "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me" from Burlesque
